# Hertz valuation and other calculation conventions / V5

Research updated September 22, 2026. The slide 2 provider snapshot is September 21, 2026, 15:11 EDT. All scenarios are illustrative, undiscounted, and unweighted. They describe possible steady-state economics, not a calendar-2027 forecast or a price target.

## Reference enterprise value (slides 53-54)

Reference stock price: September 18, 2026 close, $1.82. Reference economic-share illustration: July legal shares outstanding 356,451,393 less 37,037,037 returnable loaned shares = 319,414,356. This is not a newly filed share count. June nominal corporate principal $6,303 million less unrestricted parent cash $631 million = $5,672 million. Illustrative common equity value = $581.334 million; enterprise value = $6,253.334 million. These inputs have different dates, and the share convention differs from the provider market capitalization on slide 2.

Corporate EBITDA retains normal vehicle depreciation and vehicle interest. The chosen convention subtracts net corporate principal; it does not add gross fleet value or subtract fleet debt a second time. Operating cash requirements, leases and other claims still require judgment. $6,253.334 million divided by illustrative full-year EBITDA of $250 million and $1,000 million produces 25.0x and 6.25x. The $1,000 million comparison is not company guidance for full-year 2027 earnings. Management describes an ambition of more than $1 billion of EBITDA on a run-rate basis in 2027 and beyond.

## Joint steady-state scenarios (slide 55)

Bear: $400 million EBITDA x 6 less $5,800 million net corporate debt gives a nonnegative simplified common equity residual of zero. Base: $900 million x 7 less $5,500 million, divided by 400 million shares = $2.00. Bull: $1,200 million x 8 less $5,000 million, divided by 450 million shares = $10.22. The model assumes no negative common equity price. No probabilities or realization dates are assigned. Future shares and debt are joint aggregate assumptions, not transaction-specific conversion calculations. The scenarios omit some claims and are not complete discounted cash-flow valuations.

## Other sensitivities

- Slide 56: an additional $100 million of annual EBITDA at a 7x multiple divided by 400 million shares gives $1.75 per share, if the equity residual is positive. An additional $100 million of net debt reduces the same positive residual by $0.25 per share.
- Slide 7: $25 monthly DPU x 539,118 average vehicles x 12 = $161.735 million annual expense effect before fleet or timing changes.
- Slide 28: residual stresses of 2%, 5% and 10% on $13,680 million net vehicle book assets equal $273.6 million, $684 million and $1,368 million. These are sensitivities, not predicted accounting impairments.
- Slide 44: H1 operating cash $401 million minus $2,134 million net vehicle expenditures minus $57 million nonvehicle expenditures = negative $1,790 million before asset sales and financing. This bridge is not the company's adjusted free cash flow measure.
- Slide 52: quarterly corporate EBITDA divided by revenue gives the displayed Hertz and Avis Budget margin comparison; company adjustments and definitions are not identical.

FMP consensus revenues are estimates, not company guidance. Technical support and resistance on slide 2 are historical chart interpretations, not guaranteed levels. UW observations have dated, different reporting bases. Generic provider EBITDA and an internally inconsistent float percentage are excluded from the valuation. See operating_models.md for Palantir-related operating sensitivities.

V5 adds research on autonomous fleet service contracts and potential external data uses. No separate advertising-data premium is included. The service-only contract example on slide 34 is a teaching model and is not an additional revenue forecast.